Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for MANUEL-13 in Mexico from 13 Sep 2013 21:00 UTC to 16 Sep 2013 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MANUEL-13

in Mexico

16 Sep 2013 03 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MANUEL-13 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	150 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	121 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (19 Sep 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	121 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

TOP

Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 42.2 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	13 Sep 2013 15:00	84	No people	No people	Mexico
2	13 Sep 2013 21:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
3	14 Sep 2013 03:00	101	No people	No people	Mexico
4	14 Sep 2013 09:00	101	No people	No people	Mexico
5	14 Sep 2013 15:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
6	14 Sep 2013 21:00	93	No people	No people	Mexico
7	15 Sep 2013 03:00	121	No people	340 thousand	Mexico
8	15 Sep 2013 09:00	111	No people	No people	Mexico
9	15 Sep 2013 15:00	111	No people	No people	Mexico
10	15 Sep 2013 21:00	74	No people	No people	Mexico
11	16 Sep 2013 03:00	56	No people	No people

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	9/13/2013 3:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	15.7, -101.3
2	9/13/2013 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	64	no people	no people	15.6, -102.1
3	9/14/2013 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.3, -102.5
4	9/14/2013 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	15.3, -102.4
5	9/14/2013 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	8.5 million people	16.2, -102.4	Mexico
6	9/14/2013 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	84	no people	41.9 million people	16.8, -102.5	Mexico
7	9/15/2013 3:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	111	8900 people	41.9 million people	17.2, -102.3	Mexico
8	9/15/2013 9:00:00 AM	Tropical storm	111	no people	2 million people	17.9, -102.8	Mexico
9	9/15/2013 3:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.9 million people	18.5, -103.9	Mexico
10	9/15/2013 9:00:00 PM	Tropical storm	74	no people	2.1 million people	19.2, -104.3	Mexico
11	9/16/2013 3:00:00 AM	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	19.8, -104.9	Mexico
11	9/16/2013 12:00:00 PM	Tropical depression	47	no people	no people	20.7, -105.6	Mexico

Tropical disturbance/Weak low pressure area/Remnant low (Vmax < 51 km/h), see WMO

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Provinces

Country	Region Province
Mexico	Zacatecas
Mexico	Colima
Mexico	Jalisco
Mexico	Michoacan
Mexico	Nayarit
Mexico	Oaxaca
Mexico	Puebla
Mexico	Distrito Federal
Mexico	Guanajuato
Mexico	Guerrero
Mexico	Hidalgo
Mexico	Mexico
Mexico	Morelos
Mexico	Queretaro

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Morelia	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	Major city	590000 people
Acapulco	Guerrero	Mexico	Major city	640000 people
Querétaro	Querétaro de Arteaga	Mexico	Major city	560000 people
Atotonilco el Alto	Jalisco	Mexico	City	27000 people
Zitácuaro	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	76000 people
Jiquilpan	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	26000 people
Ahulalulco de Mercado	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Degollado	Jalisco	Mexico	City	11000 people
Guanajuato	Guanajuato	Mexico	Major city	77000 people
Ciudad Guzmán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Chapala	Jalisco	Mexico	City	20000 people
Sayula	Jalisco	Mexico	City	25000 people
Tlalnepantla	México	Mexico	City	710000 people
Tenancingo	Mexico	Mexico	City	34000 people
Moroleón	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	40000 people
Colima	Colima	Mexico	Major city	130000 people
Guadalajara	Jalisco	Mexico	Major city	1.6 million people
Tecomán	Colima	Mexico	City	75000 people
Tecpan	Guerrero	Mexico	City	14000 people
Arandas	Jalisco	Mexico	City	43000 people
Cotija	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	14000 people
Polotitlan	México	Mexico	City	-
Tacambaro	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	21000 people
Tenango de Arista	México	Mexico	City	21000 people
Teloloapan	Guerrero	Mexico	City	21000 people
La Piedad	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	69000 people
Tamazula de Gordiano	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Tepoztlán	Morelos	Mexico	City	15000 people
Tixtla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	21000 people
Manzintla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	-
Ayutla	Guerrero	Mexico	City	9900 people
Cuernavaca	Morelos	Mexico	Major city	340000 people
Huitzuco	Guerrero	Mexico	City	16000 people
Ameca	Jalisco	Mexico	City	35000 people
Tarimoro	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	13000 people
La Barca	Jalisco	Mexico	City	34000 people
Ciudad de México	Distrito Federal	Mexico	Capital	8.5 million people
Huetamo	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	22000 people
Petatlán	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people
Tepalcingo	Morelos	Mexico	City	12000 people
Cortazar	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	55000 people
Zamora	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	120000 people
Chalico	Mexico	Mexico	City	-
Yautepec	Morelos	Mexico	City	41000 people
Amatitán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	9400 people
Apasfo El Grande	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	-
Cocula	Jalisco	Mexico	City	14000 people
Pátzcuaro	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	48000 people
Apatzingan	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	94000 people
San Marcos	Guerrero	Mexico	City	12000 people
Chilpancingo	Guerrero	Mexico	Major city	160000 people
Iguala	Guerrero	Mexico	City	110000 people
Tepatitlan	Jalisco	Mexico	City	76000 people
Celaya	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	300000 people
Toluca	México	Mexico	Major city	500000 people
Ario de Rosales	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	-
Coyuca de Catalán	Guerrero	Mexico	City	-
Coalcomán	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	10000 people
Juventino Rosas	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	38000 people
Valle de Santiago	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	60000 people
Talpa de Allende	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Salvatierra	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	33000 people
Armería	Colima	Mexico	City	16000 people
León	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	900000 people
San Francisco del Rincón	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	65000 people
Silao	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	65000 people
Sauhayo	Michoacan de Ocampo	Mexico	City	-
El Oro	México	Mexico	City	6700 people
Cuautla	Morelos	Mexico	City	140000 people
Ocotlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	78000 people
Puruándiro	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	28000 people
Atoyac	Guerrero	Mexico	City	20000 people
Taxco	Guerrero	Mexico	City	53000 people
Puerto Vallarta	Jalisco	Mexico	City	190000 people
Ciudad Manuel Doblado	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	-
Zacoalco de Torres	Jalisco	Mexico	City	-
Manzanillo	Colima	Mexico	City	110000 people
Irapuato	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	340000 people
Yurécuaro	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	20000 people
Atoyac	Jalisco	Mexico	City	5300 people
Autlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	40000 people
Tecalitlán	Jalisco	Mexico	City	13000 people
Uruapan	Michoacán de Ocampo	Mexico	City	240000 people
Salamanca	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	140000 people
Pénjamo	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	32000 people
Acámbaro	Guanajuato	Mexico	City	55000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

TOP

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

TOP

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Altata, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Sep 2013 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (28 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 21 of 19 Sep 2013 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 Sep 2013 03:00	Altata	Mexico	0.7
	19 Sep 2013 02:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.6
	19 Sep 2013 03:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.5
	15 Sep 2013 12:00	Maruata	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2013 13:00	Bucerias	Mexico	0.3
	19 Sep 2013 01:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.3
	15 Sep 2013 17:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 18:00	El Real	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 17:00	Apisa	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 14:00	San Telmo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 18:00	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 09:00	Chula	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 19:00	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 09:00	Calla de Campos	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 09:00	Las Pinas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 20:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 19:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 11:00	Las Trojitas	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 21:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.2
	15 Sep 2013 07:00	Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 16:00	Cayaca	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 22:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2013 22:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 08:00	Playa Azul	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 22:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 05:00	Joluta	Mexico	0.1
	15 Sep 2013 21:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	18 Sep 2013 21:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.